It was eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
This is a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to save the day with some precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they must confront in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
